Climate change is widely recognized as a critical global challenge with far-reaching
consequences. It affects pest species by altering their population dynamics,
actual and potential distribution areas, as well as interactions with their hosts
and natural enemies. Climate change thus has potentially important implications
for multiple areas of the pest risk analysis (PRA) process. The importance of
including climate change in PRA may vary depending on the climatic context of
the PRA area in relation to the speed of climate change. If climatic changes within
the time horizon of interest are minimal, their potential impact on pest risk is
reduced accordingly. For PRAs in a changing climate, we need to be concerned
with how future climates could alter our assessment of the risks currently posed
by each pest species. While climate can influence the distribution and abundance
of pests and hosts alike, its significance will vary depending on the situation. The
inclusion of climate change within a PRA also presents challenges. The dynamic
nature of climate change, with its complex interactions and uncertainties, can
make it difficult to predict and assess the future risks posed by pests accurately.
Uncertainties related to future predictions may be much greater than the potential
effects associated with climate change and species’ responses to it. This paper
outlines examples of the effects of climate change on hosts and different groups
of pests, including invertebrates, pathogens, weeds and vector species. The aim is
to review the opportunities and challenges of incorporating climate change into
PRA, offering insights for a variety of stakeholders including policymakers on
this topic.