Most studies on insect trends have focused on the past few decades, but
major changes could have occurred earlier. If so, shifted baselines can
result in misleading conclusions or poor conservation decisions. Here we
analyse nine decades of insect trends in Switzerland and relate them to
changes in land use and climate. By reconstructing continuous trends in
species richness based on 1.2 million records of 595 saproxylic beetle and
216 butterfly species, we find that both groups declined from the 1930s to
the 1960s. While saproxylic beetle richness stabilized and subsequently
recovered, butterfly richness continued to decline until the 1980s and has
not recovered. The strong mid-century decreases were linked to increases
in agricultural mechanization, while the subsequent increases were linked
to climate warming. Over the entire 90-year period, declines primarily
affected specialist and cold-adapted species, while warm-adapted species
have increased since the 1980s. Recent gains in saproxylic beetle richness
might also reflect increased deadwood availability from windthrow and
‘biodiversity-friendly’ forest management. Our findings suggest that
reducing adverse land use is key to maintaining and promoting insect
diversity, and that shifted baselines and climate-change effects should be
considered when setting restoration goals and priorities.