High occurrence of Fusarium poae (FP) and Fusarium langsethiae (FL) and their mycotoxins nivalenol (NIV) and T‐2/HT‐2 have been observed in Swiss oats. Early prediction of mycotoxin levels is important for farmers and the cereal industry to minimize the risk of contaminated food and feed. Therefore, climate chamber experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of different temperatures (10, 15, 20 °C) and durations (4, 8, 12 h) at 99% relative humidity (RH) on the infection of oats with FP and FL. In addition, to discover the most susceptible period of oats, artificial FL inoculations were conducted at different growth stages. Field experiments were performed to observe the dispersal of these fungal species within the field and to investigate the weather conditions that influence the dispersal. The climate chamber experiments revealed higher contamination with NIV and T‐2/HT‐2 in the 10 °C treatments and with a prolonged humidity duration of 12 h 99% RH. Inoculations of oat plants at early (DC 61) and mid (DC 65) anthesis, led to higher FL infection and T‐2/HT‐2 accumulation in the grains compared with treatments at earlier growth stages, which might be due to an increased susceptibility during anthesis. No indication for spore dispersal was observed in the field experiments. The results obtained, together with the cropping factors that influence infection and mycotoxin production, could be used as a first step in developing forecasting models to predict the contamination of oats with the mycotoxins NIV and T‐2/HT‐2.